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Volcanic eruptions are one of the most important drivers of climate variability, but climate model simulations typically show stronger surface cooling than proxy-based reconstructions. Uncertainties associated with eruption source parameters, aerosol–climate modelling, and internal climate variability might explain those discrepancies, but their quantification using complex global climate models is computationally expensive. In this study, we combine a reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model (EVA_H) and a climate model (FaIR) to simulate global-mean surface temperature from 6755 BCE to 1900 CE (8705 to 50 BP) accounting for volcanic forcing, solar irradiance, orbital, ice sheet, greenhouse gases, land-use forcing, and anthropogenic aerosols and ozone forcing for the historical period (1750–1900 CE). The negligible computational cost of the models enables us to use a Monte Carlo approach to propagate uncertainties associated with eruption source parameters, aerosol and climate modelling, and internal climate variability. Averaging over the last 9000 years, we obtain a global-mean volcanic forcing of −0.15 W m−2 and an associated surface cooling of 0.12 K. Averaged over the 14 largest eruptions (injecting more than 20 Tg of SO2) of 1250–1900 CE, the mean temperature response in tree-ring-based reconstructions is in good agreement with the our simulations, scaled to Northern Hemisphere summer temperature. For individual eruptions, discrepancies between the simulated and reconstructed surface temperature response are almost always within uncertainties. At multimillennial timescales, our simulations reproduce the Holocene global warming trend typically derived from simulations and data assimilation products but exhibit some discrepancies on centennial to millennial timescales. In particular, the Medieval Climate Anomaly to Little Ice Age transition is weaker in our simulations, and we also do not capture a relatively cool period between 3000 and 1000 BCE (5000 and 3000 BP), visible in climate reanalyses. We discuss how uncertainties in land-use forcing and model limitations might explain these differences. Our study demonstrates the value of reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol–climate models to simulate climate at annual to multimillennial timescales. 

Common Era temperature variability has been a prominent component in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports over the last several decades and was twice featured in their Summary for Policymakers. A single reconstruction of mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variability was first highlighted in the 2001 Summary for Policymakers, despite other estimates that existed at the time. Subsequent reports assessed many large-scale temperature reconstructions, but the entirety of Common Era temperature history in the most recent Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was restricted to a single estimate of mean annual global temperatures. We argue that this focus on a single reconstruction is an insufficient summary of our understanding of temperature variability over the Common Era. We provide a complementary perspective by offering an alternative assessment of the state of our understanding in high-resolution paleoclimatology for the Common Era and call for future reports to present a more accurate and comprehensive assessment of our knowledge about this important period of human and climate history. 

Abstract Existing global volcanic radiative aerosol forcing estimates portray the period 700 to 1000 as volcanically quiescent, void of major volcanic eruptions. However, this disagrees with proximal Icelandic geological records and regional Greenland ice-core records of sulfate. Here, we use cryptotephra analyses, high-resolution sulfur isotope analyses, and glaciochemical volcanic tracers on an array of Greenland ice cores to characterise volcanic activity and climatically important sulfuric aerosols across the period 700 to 1000. We identify a prolonged episode of volcanic sulfur dioxide emissions (751–940) dominated by Icelandic volcanism, that we term the Icelandic Active Period. This period commences with the Hrafnkatla episode (751–763), which coincided with strong winter cooling anomalies across Europe. This study reveals an important contribution of prolonged volcanic sulfate emissions to the pre-industrial atmospheric aerosol burden, currently not considered in existing forcing estimates, and highlights the need for further research to disentangle their associated climate feedbacks. 

Polar ice cores and historical records evidence a large-magnitude volcanic eruption in 1831 CE. This event was estimated to have injected ~13 Tg of sulfur (S) into the stratosphere which produced various atmospheric optical phenomena and led to Northern Hemisphere climate cooling of ~1 °C. The source of this volcanic event remains enigmatic, though one hypothesis has linked it to a modest phreatomagmatic eruption of Ferdinandea in the Strait of Sicily, which may have emitted additional S through magma–crust interactions with evaporite rocks. Here, we undertake a high-resolution multiproxy geochemical analysis of ice-core archives spanning the 1831 CE volcanic event. S isotopes confirm a major Northern Hemisphere stratospheric eruption but, importantly, rule out significant contributions from external evaporite S. In multiple ice cores, we identify cryptotephra layers of low K andesite-dacite glass shards occurring in summer 1831 CE and immediately prior to the stratospheric S fallout. This tephra matches the chemistry of the youngest Plinian eruption of Zavaritskii, a remote nested caldera on Simushir Island (Kurils). Radiocarbon ages confirm a recent (<300 y) eruption of Zavaritskii, and erupted volume estimates are consistent with a magnitude 5 to 6 event. The reconstructed radiative forcing of Zavaritskii (−2 ± 1 W m⁻²) is comparable to the 1991 CE Pinatubo eruption and can readily account for the climate cooling in 1831–1833 CE. These data provide compelling evidence that Zavaritskii was the source of the 1831 CE mystery eruption and solve a confounding case of multiple closely spaced observed and unobserved volcanic eruptions. 

Abstract The Eldgjá eruption is the largest basalt lava flood of the Common Era. It has been linked to a major ice‐core sulfur (S) spike in 939–940 CE and Northern Hemisphere summer cooling in 940 CE. Despite its magnitude and potential climate impacts, uncertainties remain concerning the eruption timeline, atmospheric dispersal of emitted volatiles, and coincident volcanism in Iceland and elsewhere. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of Greenland ice‐cores from 936 to 943 CE, revealing a complex volatile record and cryptotephra with numerous geochemical populations. Transitional alkali basalt tephra matching Eldgjá are found in 939–940 CE, while tholeiitic basalt shards present in 936/937 CE and 940/941 CE are compatible with contemporaneous Icelandic eruptions from Grímsvötn and Bárðarbunga‐Veiðivötn systems (including V‐Sv tephra). We also find four silicic tephra populations, one of which we link to the Jala Pumice of Ceboruco (Mexico) at 941 ± 1 CE. Triple S isotopes, Δ³³S, spanning 936–940 CE are indicative of upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric transport of aerosol sourced from the Icelandic fissure eruptions. However, anomalous Δ³³S (down to −0.4‰) in 940–941 CE evidence stratospheric aerosol transport consistent with summer surface cooling revealed by tree‐ring reconstructions. Tephra associated with the anomalous Δ³³S have a variety of compositions, complicating the attribution of climate cooling to Eldgjá alone. Nevertheless, our study confirms a major S emission from Eldgjá in 939–940 CE and implicates Eldgjá and a cluster of eruptions as triggers of summer cooling, severe winters, and privations in ∼940 CE. 

The 540s, 1450s, and 1600s represent three of the five coldest decades in the Common Era (CE). In each of these cases, the cause of these cold pulses has been attributed to large volcanic eruptions. However, the provenance of the eruption and magnitude of the volcanic forcing remains uncertain. Here, we use high-resolution sulfur isotopes in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores measured across these events to provide a means of improving sulfur loading estimates for these eruptions. In each case, the largest reconstructed tree-ring cooling is associated with an extratropical eruption, and the high-altitude stratospheric sulfate loading of these events is substantially smaller than previous estimates (by up to a factor of two). These results suggest an increased sensitivity of the reconstructed Northern Hemisphere summer temperature response to extratropical eruptions. This highlights the importance of climate feedbacks and processes that amplify and prolong the cooling signal from high latitudes, such as changes in sea ice extent and ocean heat content. 

Abstract Snowpack emissions are recognized as an important source of gas‐phase reactive bromine in the Arctic and are necessary to explain ozone depletion events in spring caused by the catalytic destruction of ozone by halogen radicals. Quantifying bromine emissions from snowpack is essential for interpretation of ice‐core bromine. We present ice‐core bromine records since the pre‐industrial (1750 CE) from six Arctic locations and examine potential post‐depositional loss of snowpack bromine using a global chemical transport model. Trend analysis of the ice‐core records shows that only the high‐latitude coastal Akademii Nauk (AN) ice core from the Russian Arctic preserves significant trends since pre‐industrial times that are consistent with trends in sea ice extent and anthropogenic emissions from source regions. Model simulations suggest that recycling of reactive bromine on the snow skin layer (top 1 mm) results in 9–17% loss of deposited bromine across all six ice‐core locations. Reactive bromine production from below the snow skin layer and within the snow photic zone is potentially more important, but the magnitude of this source is uncertain. Model simulations suggest that the AN core is most likely to preserve an atmospheric signal compared to five Greenland ice cores due to its high latitude location combined with a relatively high snow accumulation rate. Understanding the sources and amount of photochemically reactive snow bromide in the snow photic zone throughout the sunlit period in the high Arctic is essential for interpreting ice‐core bromine, and warrants further lab studies and field observations at inland locations.